American Football Handicap Betting
Football over/unders are one of the simplest type of football bets you can make. A sportsbook takes a particular game and predicts what the total score of both teams will be. Then you, as a bettor, can now bet whether that score will be over or under the predicted number. If it is higher than the posted number, then ‘over’ wins. If it is lower than that predicted number, then ‘under’ wins.
- American Football Handicap Betting Rules
- How Does A Handicap Bet Work
- How Does Handicap Draw Betting Work
- Soccer Handicap Betting
Common Totals
Some of the most common total scores you will see in football are 37 and 41. In fact, these are the most common scores in the last 10 years in the National Football League (NFL). In a game where the total is 37, you will likely see a score of 20-17 or 27-10. In a game where the total is 41, you will likely see a score of 21-20. Of course, total scores could differ considerably from 37 and 41. Compared to baseball and soccer, football has a lot more points scored in a game and the totals could differ considerably. Thus, you can see a total score as high as 55 or as low as 24, although those totals are not very common.
* Please see illustration below to help understand over/under bets, text explanation follows.
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Calculating Over/Under Bets
Let us say Baltimore Ravens are playing against Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL. Our recommended online sportsbook predicts that the total score of the two teams will be 37 points in this game. The odds will look like this:
37.5 total score
Over (-125)
Under (+105)
In this case, if you are betting that the total score will be over 37, then you will need to bet $125 in order to win $100. The (-) sign shows that this is a likely outcome –a favorite outcome on this type of game or specific match-, so you have to pay more to win less. If you are betting that the total score will be 37 points or less, then you would only need to bet $100 to win $105. The (+) sign shows that this is a less likely outcome –the underdog in this situation-, so you actually get better odds here and have to pay less to win more.
A “Push” and a Concept Of ‘0.5’
The ‘0.5’ element is used so that you can have a possibility of betting that the score will be exactly 37 or lower. So, if ‘0.5’ is not used and the score ends up being 37 points, then a “push” happens – which is when nobody wins and a sportsbook has to return the bets. Sometimes though, you will see over/under bets without the half-point element.
Tips and Strategies to Help You Win
Generally speaking in football betting, totals are one the easiest markets to beat. This is because much like football prop wagers a lot additional factors are involved. You see almost every handicapper starts with a simple system that “uses points” for and “points allowed” weighed against league averages for both teams to come up with a number and then starts making adjustments. The adjustments are however heavily researched and also subjective. For example if you’re seeing the Patriots should beat the Rams by 13.5 points this might be a game where the total needs be inflated, if you also notices the Patriots rarely let up once having a lead, and tend to play a lot of prevent defense at the end of the game.
Other adjustments that can be made relate to weather; an important factor is wind. Strong wind can make it harder for players to run and score touchdowns. It will not make a job of defenders much harder though as they typically do not have to run as much, but it will for the quarterback’s throw If anything. Thus, strong winds might help to lower the total scores of the teams. On the other hand, snow and rain will not affect the score as much. It might slow down offensive players, but it will also affect defensive players. Both types of players can slip and make mistakes in those weather conditions. Thus, it will not be as predictable when it comes to rain and snow.
Really the best at handicapping totals are the bettors who best get inside the coach’s heads and understand tendencies. John Fox and Jeff Fisher coached teams are not going to score as many points as a favorite as other teams will, due to their much more conservative and by the book approach. These are coaches that would much rather attempt to pin an opponent deep than attempt a long field goal and risk field position should they miss. Also they’re much more likely to take the 3 points in a close game than to go for it on a high probability 4th and an inch from the 15. I could go on and on and on some more about this topic but by now I’m sure you’re getting my point. Much deeper analysis is needed than simple math.
Best Way to Beat Football Totals
Perhaps the best way to beat football totals is to realize for reasons covered in my article on Fade the Public, the betting markets at PinnacleSports.com (No US Players) are pretty close to efficient. From here what you should know is that a lot of amateur bettors tend to bet on the ‘over’. They typically expect and hope for an interesting game with a lot of points. As a result, even though betting markets are efficient, you’ll find US friendly recreational sportsbooks such as www.bovada.lv often shading the line such a way that the under becomes the much better bet.
Finally, perhaps the best way to profit from totals is to use them in correlated parlays. Please understand though, in all but rare cases totals should not be used in football teasers. However, as you can read about in my article on parlays there are times where parlaying a total with a spread make absolutely great sense.
Author & Professional: Jim Griffin
Every sport in the world is full of unique vernacular and terminology that can make it off putting to beginners. If you’ve ever sat down to watch a tennis match and looked on in awe as the score went from ‘love’ to 15, to 30, to 40 and then ‘deuce’ you’ll know exactly what we’re talking about.
Despite tennis’ many foibles it is still a lot easier to understand for beginners than American Football, even if you do struggle with the strange scoring system.
Getting into Football can feel less like picking up a new start and more like learning a new language which is even before you think about betting on it.
If you’re a brand-new fan of NFL and would like to place a bet on a game but don’t know the best way to do it you’re in the right place. Read on for our complete beginner’s guide to betting on American Football.
Where can I bet?
In most American states, you can bet on sports in person but it’s not the same when it comes to online betting. Unfortunately, not every state in the US allows online betting, although there has been a recent shift, with the legalisation of betting websites in the USA across 12 states with more than 80 sportsbooks accepting wagers.
Once you’ve done that, you’ll want to look up the best sports betting sites in your region, which you can do by Googling a sports betting aggregator site. These websites usually list the best sports betting websites in your area based on customer reviews, so you can be fairly sure that a highly rated provider is a good choice.
American Football Handicap Betting Rules
What can I bet on?
Most sports betting websites here in the US allow their customers to bet on a wide variety of outcomes or incidents in a Football game. However, the three most popular types of bets are:
- Match Betting
- Point Spread
- Total Points
The first is relatively simple, you will bet on the outcome of the game by selecting who you think will win. The confusing part though is that you can’t bet on a draw, an outcome which is possible in almost every Football game.
When American bookmaker’s price a Football game they take a draw out of the equation and factor that into their match betting odds, which we’ll cover in detail later on.
The second type of bet is what is sometimes referred to as handicap betting. Imagine for example your high school team were taking on the Green Bay Packers, there would almost be no point in betting, right? Everyone would know that the Packers would stroll to victory.
To make these kinds of one-sided affairs a little bit more interesting, bookmakers provide a handicap to the underdog. In the example given your high-school team might be given a handicap of 50.5 points, meaning if you back them and they lost 50-0 you’d still win your bet.
The handicaps are always given as .5 as well to avoid a situation where a draw on the handicap could happen.
Finally, the last bet is the simplest of all, simply being a bet on how many points in total will be scored in the game from both sides combined. This betting again comes in the form of .5’s to ensure a winner.
Whilst total points may be the simplest of bets to understand, they are notoriously tricky to predict. So, if you’re betting on total points, make sure you’ve done your research before putting up your money.
Understanding Odds
Depending on how familiar you are with betting or where you’re from, Football odds may be tricky to get your head around. Outside of the US and in some other sports bookmakers like to use fractional odds.
For example, a favourite might be placed at 2/1 to win which would mean for every $2 you placed you would return $1 in winnings. Football odds don’t tend to be represented in this way, instead they are represented with negative and positives
The negative number is how much you would need to bet to win $100 and the positive number is how much you would win if you bet $100. A standard type of bet on an NFL game would be -110, meaning you’d have to bet $110 to win $100.
Very rarely you will find a bookmaker who doesn’t operate in fractional odds or American odds but in decimal odds. These are perhaps the easiest to understand though, with a bet that would triple your winnings being represented as 3.0 etc.
Other Things to Look Out For
Now that you understand how odds work and what the most popular types of bets are in NFL it’s time to cover a couple of extra bets and bits of terminology that could catch you out.
What’s a Futures Bet?
Most bookmakers offer odds on what are known as ‘futures’, which are essentially outright bets on future events. Examples could be betting on the Green Bay Packers to win the regular season and lose in the playoffs, or it could be betting outright that Patrick Mahomes will win the MVP.
What is Parlay?
How Does A Handicap Bet Work
Here in America we have a penchant for using complicated words to describe something relatively simple and a parlay bet is no different. Essentially this is an accumulator bet, in which you bet on multiple outcomes.
How Does Handicap Draw Betting Work
For example, you could bet on the outcome of every NFL game over the weekend and you would only win if all of your predictions came in. These bets can be hugely rewarding but are notoriously difficult to win as one twist of fate can send the entire bet tumbling to the ground.
Soccer Handicap Betting
Now you know all you need to know about betting on American Football, do your research on the form guides and make yourself some money with an outright, parlay or futures.