4/13/2022»»Wednesday

Can You Make Money Gambling

4/13/2022
Can You Make Money Gambling Average ratng: 5,7/10 4968 reviews


Every gambler has thought about what it’d be like to earn a living through casino games. This spawns visions of making a 6-figure salary, feasting on comps, dressing like James Bond and traveling the world.

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  1. Yes, you can earn money from stocks and be awarded a lifetime of prosperity, but potential investors walk a gauntlet of economic, structural and psychological obstacles.
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  3. May 08, 2019 Once you have made £15,000-£20,000 you will need to move on to another way to make money gambling. Then once you have exhausted matched betting you can move on to making money from casino bonuses. Even more profitable but quite a bit harder.

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But is being a professional gambler really this lucrative?

Let’s begin discussing the matter by defining what it means to be a pro. You and I will also cover the salaries that pro gamblers make in different games.

How Do We Define a Professional Gambler?

The term “professional gambler” is sometimes used interchangeably for both people who earn part-time and full-time income through gambling.

This makes sense because both groups have the skills to earn long-term profits. Therefore, you can technically be considered a pro gambler as long as you’re making profits of any kind throughout the year.

But I keep a much tighter definition of a professional gambler.

A true pro not only makes profits through gambling, but enough to pay all of their living expenses. This includes rent (house payment), utilities, car payment (transportation), insurance, meals, clothes and anything else deemed necessary.

A semi-professional is somebody who makes enough to supplement their income, but doesn’t earn full-time living through gambling. I’m only going to cover full-time professional gambler salaries in this post.

What Casino Games Offer the Chance to Make a Living?

The gambling world doesn’t offer an abundance of opportunities to make a living, but there are a few different games where you can earn some nice profits.

Here’s a list of the most common games that you can make long term profits with:

  • Blackjack card counting
  • Daily fantasy sports (DFS)
  • Poker
  • Sports betting
  • Video poker

Blackjack and video poker both see you try to win money directly from the house.

Casinos do everything in their power to hinder successful card counters. This includes using continue shuffling machines, multi deck shoes and watching for counters.

Anybody who’s caught counting cards is often kicked out of the casino and banned. This is why it’s so important for card counters to blend in with normal players.

Casinos don’t usually worry about advantage video poker player. In fact, some games are set up to offer positive expected value (+EV) to players who use perfect strategy.

Another problem is that it’s now harder than ever before to find video poker games offering over 100% payback like Deuces Wild (100.76% payback), Double Bonus (100.17%) and Double-Double Bonus (100.07%).

DFS and poker both see you compete against human opponents. The house merely takes a small cut of tournament fees or cash game pots (poker).

Sportsbooks create lines in an effort to get equal betting action on both sides. The sportsbooks make their money by taking 10% vigorish (juice) from the losing group.

Every form of advantage betting has its pros and cons, but the key is that each of these activities offers the chance to make a full-time living.

Think you have what it takes to make it as a proffesional gambler? Test your skills at some of the best sites in the game.

Salaries for Professional Gamblers in Different Games

Card Counting

People have been making a living through card counting since the early 1960s, and despite all the obstacles that casinos have put in players’ way, it’s still possible to earn profits with card counting today.

You need a sizable bankroll in order to properly spread your bets and survive variance. The bare minimum you should aim for is $20,000, but it’s better to have closer to $50,000.

Making money at the casino

Can You Make Money Gambling

How much you make depends upon several factors, including the following:

Money
  • Skill level – Successful counters have between a 0.5% and 1.5% edge on casinos.
  • Hands per hour – 50 to 200 depending upon dealer speed & table size.
  • Bet spreading – Difference between your lowest and highest bet.
  • Deck penetration – The further into the shoe you get, the more confidence you can bet with.
  • Counting system – Some systems are more accurate than others.
  • Game rules – You want the best rules possible in order to lower the standard house edge.
  • Tips – $5 per hour for the dealer is standard.

Now, let’s set up an example by creating variables behind your counting session:

  • You have a 1% edge based on the rules, your skill level and using the Hi-Lo counting system.
  • The dealer is dealing 100 hands per hour.
  • Your minimum bet is $25, and you spread up to $175 during favorable counts (i.e. 1 to 7 spread).
  • You get 70% deck penetration before the shoe is reshuffled.
  • You tip $5 per hour.

Here’s how this example would play out in terms of profits:

  • Your average bet is worth $50 ($25 minimum; spread up to $175 for favorable counts).
  • $50 average bet x 100 hands = $5,000 in hourly bets.
  • 5,000 x 0.01 edge = $50 hourly win.
  • $50 hourly win minus $5 tip = $45 hourly profit.

Some counters make $100 or more per hour by improving their edge up to 1.5% and/or increasing bets, but many players are happy with a $45 per hour rate to start with.

The final step is to figure out how many hours you’ll play and convert this into an annual salary. Here are a few different figures on how much you’d make per year:

  • $45 x 40 hours per week x 52 weeks = $93,600 per year
  • $45 x 30 hours per week x 52 weeks = $70,200 per year
  • $45 x 20 hours per week x 52 weeks = $46,800 per year
  • $100 x 40 hours per week x 52 weeks = $208,000 per year

The last figure shows what’s possible for a really good card counter who makes $100 per hour. The $45 calculations show that even decent counters can make good money.

The keys, though, include keeping an accurate count amidst casino distractions and blending in with normal players.

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS is the newest game that offers skilled gamblers an opportunity to make money.

Daily fantasy sees you pay an entry fee to enter contests and compete against other players. The goal is to create lineups that score the most points and rank the highest in tournaments.

Daily fantasy sports experienced a big boom in 2015, thanks to clever marketing campaigns that make it seem like any sports fan can win.

The truth, though, is that only a small percentage of those who play actually win. A McKinsey study from 2015 showed that 1.3% of daily fantasy baseball players collect 91% of the winnings.

Despite these long odds, many people still enjoy trying to win in daily fantasy, but what exactly can you expect to win if you’re among the small percentage of DFS pros?

The potential for big winners is there for the most skilled daily fantasy players.

Saahil Sud, profiled in a WBUR piece, said he made over $3 million in profits in a single year. Former poker pro Aaron Jones switched over to DFS and won a DraftKings contest worth $5 million in early 2016.

Can You Actually Make Money Gambling

Of course, the average professional DFS player doesn’t earn quite this much. To determine a standard DFS salary, let’s consider the following factors:

  • Entries per day— Most DFS pros enter several hundred contests every day.
  • Stakes – Typical entry fees range anywhere from $1 up to $1,000.
  • Fees— DFS sites tack on a 10% fee to each buy in, which is where their profits come from.
  • Skill level— Some pros have a bigger edge than others.

Now, let’s input variables to come up with an average daily profit:

  • 300 entries per day
  • $100 + $10 (fee) average buy in
  • 300 x $110 = $3,300 daily fees
  • You’re playing for $3,000 after subtracting fees
  • Expected value based on skill is 115%
  • $3,000 x 1.15 = $3,450 winnings
  • $3,450 – $3,300 = $150 in daily profits

If we multiply $150 by 365 days, you’ll earn an annual salary worth $54,750.

Of course, DFS is filled with variance, and you won’t always feel like you’re on the path to a solid $55k per year. This is why it’s key to have a large enough bankroll to survive the ups and downs.

Poker

Poker has long been one of the most viable options for becoming a professional gambler. The reason why is because you’re competing against other opponents instead of the house.

It’s tougher to make a living in poker these days because strategy is more prevalent. Online poker gives players a chance to rapidly accelerate their learning curve by seeing more hands per hour.

You can still become a profitable player with enough hard work and experience though. In fact, some pros still make six or seven figure annual incomes with the game.

However, the vast majority of pros these days earn between $40,000 and $100,000 per year.

Poker is unique in that there are essentially two types of professionals: tournament and cash game pros.

Most rounders mix up their play between both platforms. However, the majority of poker pros also specialize in either tourneys or cash games.

Let’s look at the different considerations for cash vs. tournament play:

Cash Games

  • Profit measured in big blinds (BB) made per hour.
  • House takes 5% rake from cash game pots for running games.
  • More control over annual salary than tournaments.

Tournaments

  • Profit measured by rate of return (ROI) on buy ins.
  • House adds 10% fee to buy ins (e.g. $10 + $1 fee).
  • Only top 10 15% of field makes money.
  • Tournaments have more variance than cash games.

A cash grinder needs to figure out what stakes they must play to make a comfortable living based on BB earned per hour.

An example is if you played $10/$20 no limit Texas hold ‘em and made 1.5 BB per hour. This equates to $30 per hour, $1,200 per week for a 40-hour workweek and $62,400 for a full year.

A tournament pro must decide what buy-in level they must choose to make a high enough ROI to live comfortably.

If you spend $20,000 on tourney buy-ins in a week and make $22,000, then your RIO is 10% ([22,000 20,000 / 20,000). This means that you’ll earn a $10 profit for every $100 you spend on tournament buy-ins.

One more consideration here is whether you’ll dedicate the bulk of your time towards live or online poker.

Online cash games and tourneys offer more volume because you can play multiple tables. Plus hands and tournaments go much faster, giving you an opportunity to boost your hourly wages.

Another Internet poker advantage is that you cut out extra expenses like traveling, hotel stays, meals and dealer/waitress tips.

Nevertheless, many players find that their win rate is higher in live games. The most lucrative tournaments are found in land-based casinos, too, such as the World Series of Poker events.

Can You Make Money Gambling In Vegas

Sports Betting

The good thing about sports betting is that you don’t need to have a massive win rate just to book profits.

Professional Gambling

Sportsbooks only take 10% juice from the losing side. This differs from DFS and poker tournaments where you must pay an extra 10% fee regardless of whether you’re a winner or loser.

The juice can be lowered or adjusted based on where the sportsbook is trying to push action, but 10% is generally the amount you’ll see taken from the losing side.

The end result is that you need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even. How do we arrive at this number?

You need to bet $11 to win $10 when the juice is 10%. You must win 11 out of every 21 bets to break even at this rate, which is a 52.38% winning percentage (11/21).

This doesn’t sound intimidating when compared to how good you must be at poker or DFS to win long term, but it’s also really tough to continually find value because sportsbooks are so good at setting lines.

Can you make money gambling on football

Professional sports bettors usually win anywhere from 53.5% to 55.0% of the time.

Some handicappers brag about higher win rates ranging from 58.0% to 60.0%, but these figures are almost impossible to sustain long term.

Pro sports bettors must be very adept at handling their bankroll since they’re dealing with such a small profit margin. They also need to make larger wagers than the average bettor to increase potential profits.

The general rule of thumb is to never bet more than 1% to 2% of your bankroll on any given contest. If you have a $100,000 bankroll, you’d never put more than $2,000 of this on any single event.

Some sports bettors like Billy Walters and Haralabos “Bob” Voulgaris have made millions of dollars with this model. But the average bettors are looking at more modest salaries ranging from $50,000 to $150,000 annually.

The key to figuring out how much you can make involves determining your ROI just like a poker pro. For example, if you make $10,000 worth of bets during a week and earn back $10,500, then you have a 5% ROI for the week ([10,500 10,000 / 10,000).

You then need to expand this to cover an entire year. Let’s look at an example below:

  • You place $1,000,000 worth of bets during the year.
  • You win $1,060,000.
  • Your profit is $60,000 for the year (1,060,000 1,000,000).
  • Your ROI is 6% ([1,060,000 1,000,000] / 1,000,000).

A 6% ROI is extremely high for sports betting, but this is just a simple way to show how to calculate your ROI and salary.

Video Poker

Video poker has good and bad things going for it these days.

The good news is that you can virtually guarantee yourself profits if you become a skilled enough player. The downside is that there are fewer and fewer +EV machines in casinos today.

Your best bet is to find a full-pay Deuces Wild machine, which pays back 100.76%. You also need to take advantage of as many double and triple comp point promotions as you can.

You can find which land based casinos offer full pay Deuces Wild by visiting the site vpFREE2.com.

Once here, navigate to the “Casinos” tab and look in the Las Vegas section. I see 13 different casinos that offer full pay Deuces Wild at the time of this post.

Unfortunately, the highest coin denomination for these machines is only $0.25. In past decades, you could find $1 denomination machines that quadrupled your potential profits.

Even under the right conditions, the odds of you making a good living with video poker are slim. Let’s run the math on what you can expect:

  • You play full pay Deuces Wild (100.76% payback).
  • You bet 5 coins per hand on a quarter denomination machine ($1.25 per hand).
  • You play 1,000 hands per hour, which is extremely fast.
  • The casino is running a triple loyalty point promotion.
  • The casino comps 0.1% of your total bets, or 0.3% for triple points.
  • 1,000 x 1.25 x 0.0076 = $9.50 regular hourly winnings.
  • $1,200 total bets x 0.003 = $3.60 in comps
  • You earn $13.10 per hour.

Even if you spend 50 hours in the casino, this only works out to $655 per week, and you’d earn $34,060 when we stretch this out for an entire year.

Most people can get by on this salary, but it’s far from what anybody envisions when becoming a professional gambler.

Conclusion

Being a pro gambler has some obvious benefits, including flexible hours, being your own boss and the ability to increase your income.

Some gamblers, such as Saahil Sud and Bob Voulgaris, have even gotten rich with their skills. Of course, you may be perfectly happy making mid 5-figures, as long as you get to enjoy the aforementioned benefits, but there are also some downsides to be aware of. These include risk, highs and lows, no sick days and the potential to lose everything.

It’s up to you to weigh the good and bad before ultimately deciding to pursue a professional gambling career.

The potential rewards can be great in the case of card counting, DFS, poker and sports betting, but you also have to be disciplined and good at handling risk.

Without a doubt, the number one question we get asked in regards to betting
online is “How do I make money gambling online?” The answer as you might expect
is not a simple answer. While we wish we could just tell you to “do x, y, and z
and you’ll be rich,” it’s just not that simple.

Making money online comes down to game selection and having clear
expectations of what you’re doing. The opportunities are huge, and there are
millions and millions to be made if you look in the right spots. Lucky for you,
we’re going to do our best to educate you and point you in the right direction.

The best way for us to approach answering this question is to answer it
individually for each different type of online gambling/betting that exists.
Specifically today we’re going to look at sports betting online, casino/table
games online, and skill-based online games. There are a few other obscure forms
of gambling online that do exist, but these main categories should encompass
almost all of the major types that are out there.

As a spoiler, I can tell you that it is possible to make money at each of
these, though, some will depend solely on your luck while the others are
sustainable based on your skill and abilities. The difference is going to come
down to whether the game is a luck based or skill based game. Let’s clarify the
difference first before we dive into each individual type of online gambling and
how to make money at it.

Luck vs. Skill

If you’ve ever hung around a casino or talked to gamblers before, you’ve
probably heard someone at least once tell you that they had a system to beat a
certain game. It might have been craps or roulette or maybe even blackjack. The
problem we always noticed when we heard this from someone was that they were
broke or were not rolling in the money. If they truly had a system to beat a
casino game, wouldn’t they be doing it 24/7 and living the high life?

The real reason they don’t do this 24/7 for a living and aren’t living the
high life is that
most casino games are luck based. Luck based games are games
where the house has the edge. This means that there are no super secret systems
out there that can beat these games outside of cheating. Does this mean you
can’t make money at them? Of course not. All it means is that in the long-run
over thousands and thousands of hands, spins, or rolls, the casino is going to
win.

This means you can most certainly make money in the short run. Many gamblers
go months and sometimes years winning at games. The thing to note, though, is
that this is a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. In the end, the
casino will ALWAYS win at luck based games. There is a silly cliché phrase
that explains this:

Spotting a luck based game is easy. If the game is run by a casino (live or
online) and you are playing against the casino and not versus other players,
this is a luck based game, and they are going to have a long run edge. Again,
you can still make money playing these games (and lots of it), but in the long
run over thousands and thousands of games, the casino will ultimately win.

Skill-based games, on the other hand, have no house edge. These games are
ones where players compete against each other instead of against the house (the
casino). The casino will take a small fee for facilitating the game, but
ultimately it is up to the players who wins the money.

Skill-based games are sustainable ways for people to make money long-term. If
you are good at a skill based game and can continually get people to compete
against you, you can make a full-time living playing the game. These games are
easy to spot as they are games where players are competing against other players
and not the house.

Making Money Online Playing Casino Games and Slots

We have some good news, and we have some bad news when it comes to making
money gambling on your favorite casino games and slots. The bad news is that
online casino games and slots are games of luck that the house will always have
a long-term edge on. The good news is that regardless of this, you can still
make a lot of money at them!

Addressing the bad news first, you need to realize that there is no system
out there to “beat” online casino games to make a living playing them. You will
never be able to be a professional slots player or a professional roulette
player or anything like that. Ultimately, the casino edge and statistics are
going to prevail, and the casino is going to win. Understanding this is
imperative to have a great time playing these games online.

Regarding the good news, though, this does not mean you can’t make money
playing online casino games and slots. First, the casino edge is only for the
long term. The long term usually means hundreds of thousands and millions of
spins of a slot or roulette wheel or hundreds of thousands of tosses of the
craps dice etc. You may play the games and never ever experience the long term
statistics correcting themselves. The casino edge on most games is only a couple
of percentage points meaning you can totally have major winning sessions and
runs.

An Analogy to Help

Imagine this analogy. There are two bettors, you and a friend, who are going
to bet on the flip of a coin. You are going to take turns flipping the coin with
you allowed to bet on every flip. If the flip is heads, you win your bet. If the
flip is tails, you lose your bet. You do not have a choice; you have to bet
heads every time.

We all know that coins are going to land on heads 50% of the time and on
tails 50% of the time. Let’s say we alter the coin a little bit to make it more
like when we are betting against the casino giving them an edge. Let’s say that
this coin lands on heads only 48% of the time and on tails 52% of the time.
This represents the long-term edge that the casino is going to have.

You and your friend start flipping the coin and placing your bets against the
house. You each get to flip the coin 50 times. If everything happened without
any variance, you both would get heads about 48% of your flips and lose a tiny
bit of money to the casino over the course of the flips. But variance comes into
play. Variance says that over ALL 100 flips about 48% will be heads, but it
doesn’t necessarily say which of you two are going to get more or less of the
heads in the short run.

It’s possible that you get heads 48 of your 50 flips and your friend gets
heads zero times in their 50 flips. At the end of the day in the long-run, the
casino is still making money because it is winning 52% of its bets, but you’ve
made an absolute TON of money. The point here is that most recreational gamblers
will be operating in the short term for most or their entire gambling career.

Jackpots

Part of the way that this variance spreads itself out is through jackpots.
Not all players are going to win jackpots but if you do win one you can bet that
you’re going to be a lifetime profitable gambler (depending on the size of the
jackpot of course). Jackpots still fall in line when it comes to
statistics and house edge, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be one of the players
to fall outside of the statistical norm and strike it rich!

Bonuses

One way to fight back against the house edge and a lot of times turn it in
your favor (at least temporarily) is by
taking advantage of bonuses. Bonuses, as
you may already know, are free money/free spins/free play that online casino
sites will give you to try to attract your business. A lot of times the benefits
of these bonuses will turn the odds in your favor while you are using the bonus.

Of course, they won’t give you the bonus forever because they would lose
money and have to shut their doors. But in the short term, you can definitely
take full advantage of these promotions and clean up some easy cash. It’s also
of importance to note that there is no reason you can’t jump between a few sites
to take advantage of different promotions.

This is a lot like going to a different grocery store for a week because you
have a coupon for something. There is nothing unethical about it, and the sites
actually would prefer you use their promotions. The reason they run the promos
is to get you in the door to try out their product in hopes that you will stay
or make a change from your home site.

Making Money Online Sports Betting

Sports betting is a complete 180 the other direction from online slots and
table games. Sports betting is a skill based bet (depending on the bets you
choose). While you might think you are betting against the house, they are
actually manipulating lines so that you’re basically betting against other
players and they are taking a small fee for facilitating the bets. With proper
skill and a sharp eye, you can make a living as a sports bettor. Is this
difficult? You bet your butt it’s difficult but it’s completely possible, and a
lot of people do it every day.

So how do you make money online betting sports?

Simple. Join a sportsbook and
start making correct picks. Start with a sport that you know well and do
extensive research. If you can come up with a system to properly predict games
and outcomes, you can be a successful sports bettor.

One thing that is extremely important to point out is that you have to choose
the right type of sports bets or you’re going to be placing luck based bets
instead of skill based bets. As you may or may not know, you can bet on a lot
more than just who the winner of a game is going to be. You can bet how many
points will be scored, how many times they will do something, who will score
first etc. Some of these bets will require research and skill to make a correct
pick, and some are just going to be dumb luck.

Here are two different sports bet as an example. One is a skill based bet and
one is a luck based bet.

  • Will Rob Gronkowski score more or less than 1.5 touchdowns in a game?
  • Will the final score of the Patriots be odd or even?

As you can hopefully see, the first bet would require you to have strong
knowledge of how Rob Gronkowski is going to perform in a game. You would have to
look at the defense he is up against and predict the game plan of attack the
Patriots employ. There is a lot of skill that goes into picking this bet and the
more knowledgeable and skilled you are, the better off you will do. This is an
example of a skill based bet that you could profit from long term if you were
sharp enough.

The second bet about whether or not their final point total is odd or even is
really just dumb luck. You could make some crazy argument that you can predict
the exact game flow and how many points they score, but in reality, you are just
guessing. This is an example of a luck based bet that you can still make money
off of but it is not sustainable long term. As long as you’re aware of this,
have at it!

It’s important to point out that these bets are not segregated or separated
at all when you go to the online sportsbooks. The luck based and the skill based
bets are all going to be listed side by side, and it’s up to you to be able to
decipher the difference. Honestly, it should be easy to tell the difference by
just taking a few minutes to pay attention to what you’re betting on. If it is
something that you are struggling to find data and information to support your
pick, it is probably a luck based bet.

The Beauty of Line Shopping Online

One of the easiest ways to make MORE money online with correct sports betting
picks is through line shopping. Line shopping is a strategy that is not possible
with brick and mortar casinos due to logistics and has really only become
popular thanks to online sportsbooks. Line shopping is the process of checking
several different sportsbooks to get the best odds and payouts possible for your
bets.

You just can’t do this in real life unless you live somewhere like Vegas
where you have a ton of different sportsbooks right next to each other. Even
then, most of the books there are interconnected, so the odds are going to be
the same at all of them. Online, though, you tend to see a lot of greatly
varying lines for the same bet.

Here’s an Example:

Let’s say you are planning to bet the Miami Heat to beat
the Golden State Warriors on the moneyline at +150. Let’s say you’re totally
confident on this bet and you think it’s the easiest bet in the world. Is this a
good bet for you to make?

Making Money Online Gambling

A better question would be, is this the best bet you can make? If you were to
take a few seconds and line shop another online sportsbook, you would see that
one is offering the same bet for +170. This is the exact same bet except if you
place it at the second online sportsbook you will get paid out more money. If
you bet $100 and the Heat win, the first sportsbook will pay you $150 in profit
and the second will pay you $170 in profit.

How Much Money Can You Make From Gambling

By simply taking advantage of the technology that comes with betting online,
you can make MORE money on a correct pick just by taking a few seconds to check
a few different sportsbooks. We can assure that this is not a rare occurrence to
find varying lines. It’s actually a fairly common occurrence to find different
lines, and it can greatly affect the amount of money you make betting online.

Making Money Online Playing Skill-Based Games

Can You Make Money Gambling On Sports

You may notice that in the title of this section it does not say anything
about “gambling.” This is because gambling refers to placing wagers on a game of
chance that you have no control over. Out of all the different bet types on this
page, these are the ones that you have the most control over. Skill-based games
are games that pit two or more players against each other. Skill-based games are
NOT played against the house, but as we stated earlier, the house takes a small
cut for facilitating the game.

Skill based games can 100% be played for a living as long as you can continue
to get people willing to play against you. While some of these games do have an
element of luck, the majority of the game’s outcome is determined by skill. This
means that a worse player may win a few games in the short run, but the better
player will always win out in the long run.

For example, if you get your money in the middle playing Texas Hold em poker
(a skill based game) with pocket Aces against J-10, you’re supposed to win that
hand based on the statistics. However, it is entirely possible that you lose
that hand in an unlucky fashion. If you continue to get your money in
significantly ahead, though, statistics should even out, and you should make
money in the long run. Though you might lose in the short run, you will prevail
in the long run.

Some of the most popular skill games you can play for money online are:

For more information on playing these games online, here’s a guide we’ve put
together for you:

The Bottom Line of How to Make Money Gambling Online

Hopefully, if you’ve read until this point, you have a pretty strong idea of
the different options you have when it comes to making money gambling online.
Depending on whether you’re just looking for some recreational fun or a way to
make a living, we’ve given you several different options in both directions.

Remember, be realistic with your expectations and don’t try and make a career
out of a game that you are not statistically supposed to win long term at.